Projections show the district will have 4,138 students in the 2022–2023 school year, down from 4,426 students in October of this year.
The Evesham Township School District’s annually commissioned student demographic study continues to predict a decline in student enrollment through the furthest projected school year of 2022–2023.
Superintendent John Scavelli Jr. reviewed portions of the study at last week’s Board of Education meeting, along with the district posting the full study on its website.
According to the study’s five-year projection, the district will have 4,138 students in the 2022–2023 school year, a decrease of nearly 300 students from the district’s official enrollment for the ongoing 2017–2018 school year, which sat at 4,426 students when measured in October.
According to Scavelli, demographers completed projections by examining historic enrollment, birth data, survival rates and the impact of current and future residential development.
“The bottom line is a continued downward trend in our enrollment moving forward,” Scavelli said.
Scavelli said one factor in the projected decline could be attributed to an ongoing decline in the birthrate for families in the township.
“I think one of the most telling things in the study to me is the actual births in the community,” Scavelli said. “As we’ve been talking about for several years now, the birth rate is about half of what it used to be several years ago.”
In 1990, the oldest year available for search on the state Department of Health’s assessment data website, there were 641 births in Evesham Township.
In 2000, the number had dropped to 595 births. In 2010, the number reached 477 births.
In 2015, the most recent year available for search, the number was down further to 391 births.
“In the last 15 or 20 years, there were 600 or more children born here in Evesham every year, and then over time it dropped into the 500s, and then over the last several years into the 400s, and now … we’re starting to see years where the births are under 400,” Scavelli said. “Obviously that will significantly impact future students.”
The study also factors in an additional 265 students projected from various residential developments in town that have recently opened or have already been planned and approved for construction by the township.
The full study, including future projects segmented by grade level and each of the next five years, can be viewed on the left column on the superintendent’s page on the district website at www.evesham.k12.nj.us.
In other news:
The district is planning to hold its annual community budget meeting on Feb. 13.
As with meetings in past years, the event will allow district officials to present members of the public with a preview of the 2018–2019 school year budget.
Following the presentation, Scavelli said parents and members of the community would have time to ask questions and provide feedback.
The meeting, which will begin at 6:30 p.m. at DeMasi Middle School, is not an official BOE meeting, so no action will be taken.
“It’s just simply providing information,” Scavelli said.
